Denver Housing Bust? What the October 2025 Denver Housing Market Data Really Shows
- Trent Tillman
- 3 hours ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 12 minutes ago
Every few months a scary headline makes the rounds:
“91% of homes have lost value.”
“Housing recession deepens.”
“Denver real estate finally collapsing.”
If you read enough of them, you’d think we were back in 2008.But when you dig into the actual numbers, both nationally and here in Denver, the story is very different.
Denver is cooling.
Some segments are softening faster than others.
But a crash? Forced selling? A market "going to zero"?
The facts say otherwise.
This article breaks down what’s really happening in the Denver metro housing market as of the October 2025 DMAR report — and why the data points to normalization, not collapse.
The National Backdrop: A Cooling Market, Not a Collapsing One
Before we zoom in on Denver, it helps to understand the larger housing landscape.
Across the U.S., home prices are still up modestly year-over-year — much closer to long-term historical norms. We’re also seeing inventory rise to the most balanced levels since 2018, hovering near 4.6 months of supply. That’s a meaningful difference from the ultra-tight, emotionally charged conditions of the pandemic boom.
New home sales remain strong, too. Builders nationwide are selling homes at a pace of around 800,000 units (SAAR), the highest since early 2022, thanks to incentives like interest-rate buydowns that resale sellers simply can’t compete with.
The national market isn't hot. But it’s not breaking either. It's rebalancing.
About That “91% of Homes Lost Value” Headline…
One of the most widely shared—and wildly misunderstood—numbers this year comes from a Zillow analysis claiming that “91% of U.S. homes have lost value.”
Here’s what that actually measures:
Zillow Zestimates, not actual MLS sold prices
Peak-to-current changes since April 2022
Heavier weighting toward condos, which have softened more than detached homes
What it doesn’t mean:
❌ That 91% of homeowners are underwater
❌ That prices are falling year-over-year
❌ That home values are collapsing
What it really reflects is the return to a normal, post-pandemic baseline — especially in markets that overheated during 2020–2022.
Denver fits that pattern almost perfectly.
Denver Housing Market: What the October 2025 Data Actually Shows
The October data provides the clearest picture yet of how the Denver housing market 2025 is normalizing:
Overall Market (Attached + Detached Combined)
Median Close Price: $595,000 (flat YoY)
Active Listings: 12,495 (+14.21% YoY)
Pending Sales: +3.41% YoY
Closed Sales: –7.71% YoY
Months of Inventory: 3.73 (–4.11% MoM)
Median Days on MLS: 33 (+26.92% YoY)
Close-to-List Price Ratio: 98.35%
These numbers describe a market that’s balanced, a bit slower, and much more negotiable — but not distressed.
Homes are taking longer to sell.Buyers have more choices.Sellers must price correctly. But homes are still selling close to list price.
That is not a crash. That is a normalizing market.
Detached vs. Attached: A Growing Divide
One of the most important dynamics in Denver right now is the widening gap between detached and attached properties. They are moving in very different directions.
Detached Homes (Single-Family)
Detached homes remain relatively stable:
Median price at $650,000 (flat YoY)
Average price up 3.55% YoY
Pending sales up 6.35% YoY
Close-to-List Price: 98.35%
This segment benefits from the fact that detached homes remain the preferred product for most buyers — especially families and buyers under the $900k range.
Attached Homes (Condos & Townhomes)
This is where the softness appears:
Median price at $388,220
Active listings up 15.86% YoY
Pending sales down 6.32% YoY
Close-to-List Price: 98.17%
Why?
A few reasons are driving condo-specific weakness:
Higher insurance premiums across Colorado
Significant HOA fee increases
Non-warrantable condo issues impacting financing
A smaller buyer pool due to total-payment comparisons
So while the overall Denver market is stable, the attached segment tells a more cautious story.
Denver Is More Neighborhood-Specific Than Ever
If there’s one theme dominating Denver real estate this year, it’s this:
Two nearly identical homes — three miles apart — can perform completely differently.
One may get three offers in the first weekend. The other may sit for 60+ days and require multiple price reductions.
Why?
School district differences
HOA health and reserves
Walkability and amenities
Zip-code-specific supply
Recent new-build competition
Local demographic shifts
Denver has become a true micro-market city.Anyone reading only city-wide stats is missing the whole picture.
Price Reductions: What’s Normal vs. What’s Happening Now
One of the most misunderstood indicators in the market is the share of listings with price reductions.
Real-time trackers (Altos, Redfin, Realtor.com) show:
45–55% of active Denver listings now experience a price reduction.
This sounds dramatic until you know the context:
In a normal, balanced market, roughly one-third of homes take a reduction
At 45–55%, Denver is elevated — but not historically extreme
A close-to-list ratio above 98% confirms reductions reflect re-positioning, not collapsing values
Sellers are adjusting to slower traffic and rising inventory — not panicking.
New Construction: A Major Stabilizing Force
Builders have played an outsized role in holding Denver’s median price flat this year.
Nationally, new homes represent about 19–20% of all sales.In Denver, that share rises to 20–25%.
Builders can use tools that resale sellers simply don’t have:
Below-market interest rates (often 1–2% below standard rates)
Credits for closing costs
Design upgrades
Temporary and permanent rate buydowns
And even with this elevated building activity…
Colorado still faces a shortage of approximately 30,000–35,000 homes
(from Up For Growth, the Colorado Housing Needs Assessment, and the State Demographer’s Office)
Meaning: builders are adding supply, but nowhere near enough to oversaturate the market.
The Lock-In Effect: Still the Biggest Market Force
More than 65% of Colorado homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%.Over 30% have rates below 3%.
That means most sellers aren’t moving unless they absolutely have to.
People selling today are largely doing so due to:
Life events
Relocation
Family changes
Divorce
Downsizing or upsizing out of necessity
This keeps inventory rising slowly, not in dramatic waves like 2008.
No wave of forced selling = no crash.
Denver Market Comparison (Updated for October 2025)
Here’s a simple view of how far the market has normalized since the 2022 peak.
Segment | Peak (Apr 2022) | Apr 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2025 YTD vs 2024 YTD |
Overall Residential Median | $616,500 | $607,000 | $595,000 | +0.67% |
Detached Homes Median | $684,000 | $672,750 | $650,000 | 0% |
Attached Homes Median | $435,000 | $405,000 | $388,220 | –2.72% |
This is the definition of soft landing + seasonal normalization.
Final Thoughts: Denver’s Market Is Normalizing, Not Crashing
If you take nothing else from this analysis, let it be this:
Prices are flat overall, not falling broadly
Condos are softening more than detached homes
Inventory is rising in a healthy way
New homes are keeping prices steadier
The lock-in effect is suppressing forced selling
Neighborhood-level performance varies widely
Denver is in a post-pandemic normalization cycle, not a crisis.
A balanced market is not a bad thing, especially for buyers who felt shut out for years.
If you have questions about the Denver housing market or want to explore your financing options, feel free to reach out anytime.